GDP · 3 min read · Q1 2026

Nigeria's GDP: Q1 2026 Highlights

Sources: NBS · Aztran Research

Real Q1 GDP Growth Rate

3.89%

From 3.13% in Q1 2025

Nominal GDP

₦110.79 TRN

From ₦99.05 TRN in Q1 2025

Real GDP

₦51.26 TRN

From ₦49.34 TRN in Q1 2025

Fastest Growing Sectors

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
11.25%
Information and Communication
10.98%
Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management
10.32%
Finance and Insurance
8.54%
Transportation and Storage
7.41%
Construction
6.38%
Accommodation and Food Services
4.36%
Manufacturing
3.29%
Administrative and Support Services
3.21%
Agriculture
3.15%

Top Contributing Activities

Trade
17.89%
Crop Production
17.38%
Real Estate
13.1%
Telecommunications & Information Services
9.19%
Construction
4.85%
Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas
3.92%
Food, Beverage and Tobacco
3.48%
Financial Institutions
3.41%
Livestock
3.08%
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
2.44%

Oil vs Non-Oil

  • Non-Oil96.08%
  • Oil3.92%

Broad Sectors

  • Services57.73%
  • Agriculture23.16%
  • Industries19.11%

Headline Performance

  • Nigeria's economy grew 3.89% in real terms year-on-year in Q1 2026, the strongest Q1 performance since 2022 and a meaningful step up from the 3.13% recorded in Q1 2025.
  • Nominal GDP hit ₦110.79 trillion, up 17.79% year-on-year, driven partly by structural price inflation still embedded in the system.

Sector-by-Sector Breakdown

  • Services (57.73% of real GDP) grew 4.31%, marginally below Q1 2025's 4.33%. The standouts within services were Telecommunications & Information Services (real growth 10.98%, contributing 9.19% to GDP), Finance & Insurance (8.54% real growth), and Construction (6.38%). Trade, the single largest contributor at 17.89% of real GDP, only grew 2.08% in real terms.
  • Agriculture (23.16% of real GDP) was the most improved sector, growing 3.15% in real terms versus a near-stagnant 0.07% in Q1 2025. Crop production, which accounts for 66.76% of agriculture's nominal value, was the driver. This recovery matters significantly for food inflation and rural household incomes.
  • Industries (19.11% of real GDP) grew 3.50%, led by Manufacturing 3.29%. Cement within manufacturing grew 11.53% in real terms, consistent with elevated construction activity. The major drag was Electricity, Gas & Steam, which contracted sharply by -15.30% in real terms, its worst quarterly performance in recent years.
  • Oil sector grew 2.57% in real terms year-on-year, contributing 3.92% of real GDP. However, physical production averaged only 1.55 mbpd, below both Q1 2025 (1.62 mbpd) and Q4 2025 (1.58 mbpd). The declining production trend remains a concern.

Outlook

  • The acceleration in real GDP growth to 3.89%, agricultural recovery, and strong telecom/finance sector performance provide a supportive macro backdrop for equities.
  • Telecom names (particularly MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa) are further supported by surging demand for data services, rising smartphone penetration, and continued data monetisation, which should strengthen earnings momentum going forward.
  • Meanwhile, the cement industry is positioned for stronger performance as increased government infrastructure spending under the revised budget is expected to drive higher construction activity and cement demand.